Petoskey Real Estate Sales Collapse

The Petoskey real estate market appears to have collapsed in the first half of 2009, following a relatively strong first half the previous year. The latest sales numbers are abysmal. One can only wonder if these latest numbers signal a market capitulation or bottom, or whether things can actually get worse from here.

The number of Petoskey homes and condominiums sold during the first half of 2009 was down only 22%, from 120 units in 2008 to 94 units in 2009. I only have unit sales data from 2002 forward, and 94 units is the smallest number in the first half of any year in the last eight years. That is the good news.

However, the dollar volume of 1st half residential sales in the Petoskey School District tanked, from $47,001,605 in 2008 to $16,510,876 in 2009, a decrease of almost 65%! This dollar volume is the lowest number recorded since 2001, which is oldest dollar volume data I have available for a first half, when $24.6 million in residential sales was reported.

The average sale price for a Petoskey home during the first half of 2009 plummeted to $175,648 from $391,680 during the first half of 2008. Perhaps more importantly, the median sales price decreased significantly, from $180,500 in 2008 to $138,000 in 2009, a decline of 23.5% year over year, and a full 30% decline from what appears to have been the market peak median sales price of $197,090 for the full year 2005.

Of the 94 Petoskey homes and condominiums sold during the first half of 2009, it appears as though at least 41, or 43.6% of the sales, were bank owned foreclosures. I know that at least some of the remaining 53 sales were short sales, where the bank accepted less than what was owed on the mortgage to avoid foreclosure proceedings. I think that I am being conservative in my estimation that a majority of the sales during the first half of 2009, or over 50% of the sales, were either bank owned foreclosures or short sales. This is truly an astonishing number. Foreclosure sales are having a significant negative impact upon Petoskey property values and it is unclear at this time if the end to the foreclosure boom is in sight.

Note: Based upon sales information obtained from the Northern Michigan Multiple Listing Service for the period from January 1, 2009 through June 30, 2009.

Has the Real Estate Market Hit Bottom?

This intriguing question is the headline of Petoskey News Review Reporter Steve Zucker's recent article on the Northern Michigan real estate market.

While I wouldn't presume to know the answer to this question, some statistics I researched for this story show the extent to which our real estate market has weakened over the past several years.

Almost thirty percent of sales involving single family homes in the Petoskey, Harbor Springs, Boyne City and Charlevoix school districts from January 1, 2008 through September 1, 2008 were bank owned foreclosures. The number of foreclosure sales this year is up almost 500% from the same period in 2006, just two short years ago.

For the months of January through August of this year, there were 359 unit sales of homes and condominiums in the Petoskey, Harbor Springs, Boyne City and Charlevoix real estate markets, with the dollar volume of sales totalling $114,417,285, and a median sales price of $170,000.

While we may not know whether we have reached the bottom, it looks like our most recent residential market top was in 2004. From January through August of 2004, there were 536 unit sales of homes and condominiums in the Petoskey, Harbor Springs, Boyne City and Charlevoix real estate markets, with the dollar volume of sales totalling $150,604,789, and a median sales price of $192,200.

Comparing this year's sales numbers with 2004, our unit sales volume is down over 33%, our dollar volume of sales is down almost 25%, and our median sales price is down almost 12%.

According to some industry observers, subprime mortgage delinquencies appear to have peaked in December of 2007, and subprime mortgage foreclosure starts may have peaked in January of 2008. This could indicate that the flood of bank owned properties into our market may soon be nearing a peak. However, there is concern that we have not yet reached a peak in Alt-A mortgage delinquencies.

I don't beleive that we will see a meaningful improvement in our local real estate market until the overhang of bank owned properties works its way through the system, which is currently in progress. However, with so much bad news already behind us, I am cautiously optimistic that we are beginning to see some light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully it isn't a freight train!

Foreclosure Sales Carry the Day

Wow, talk about a sign of the times. When I logged into our MLS system last night to look at the day's sales activity, I found that four of the five recorded sales for the day were bank owned property. That was truly astounding for me, bringing home the fact that foreclosure sales are one of the driving forces in today's Northern Michigan real estate marketplace.

Most of these Northern Michigan foreclosure sales are properties which are selling below the median home price, which varies by community, but which is around $176,000 so far this year for Emmet County as a whole.

Here is a snapshot of the foreclosure sales which were recorded yesterday, March 27, 2008.

8844 Luce Street, Oden
Sales Price - $40,000

846 Deer Run Court, Boyne City
Sales Price - $160,000

1212 Clarion Avenue, Petoskey
Sales Price - $135,000

6928 Milton Road, Alanson
Sales Price - $75,500

Note: Photos courtesy of Northern Michigan MLS.